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Portfolio Optimizer

The Alphave Portfolio Optimizer takes the Indian stocks you already hold and works out what each one's weight should be, given how the holdings actually move together. It reads your book, estimates a return and a risk for every name, builds the efficient frontier those holdings can reach, and shows you the weights at four points on it — minimum risk, best risk-adjusted trade-off, risk parity, and any risk level you pick yourself — against the weights you hold today.

It is a replacement optimiser, not just a re-weighter. The universe it can move money into is not only the stocks you own: it also includes each held sector's own index, the broad market, and a risk-free leg. So the honest answer to "is my bank weight wrong?" can be "move it to Bank Nifty" or "park it in debt", rather than only "buy more of the other bank you happen to own".

Open Portfolio Intelligence →The Portfolio Intelligence workspace at /portfolio is open to everyone and needs no account to look at. Saving holdings needs a free account. The Optimizer tab is included on both paid plans, Alpha Plus (₹499/month) and Alpha Pro (₹999/month) — it is not on the free plan.

What Portfolio Optimizer does

Tells you the risk you are not being paid for

One verdict line: the Sharpe ratio your book earns today against the Sharpe ratio the same holdings could reach at the same risk. If those two numbers are close, the optimiser says so and you stop.

Draws the efficient frontier of your own holdings

Not a textbook curve — the frontier your specific stocks span, clickable to set a risk target, with a transition map showing which names enter and leave as you turn the risk dial.

Gives four target portfolios, not one answer

Current, minimum-risk, best trade-off, risk parity and your own target, each with the twelve-month path it actually realised, so you can see what the recommendation would have felt like to hold.

Turns the target into a trade list

An illustrative rebalance for whichever strategy you picked — what to trim, what to add, in rupees — with a hold band so it does not tell you to move a position by half a percent.

Stress-tests today against the target

Value at Risk and conditional VaR, the drawdown curve, and index-shock scenarios, run on both the book you hold and the mix you are considering.

Shows where the risk actually sits

Percentage of money against percentage of risk, per holding, covariance-weighted — which is how a 6% position turns out to be carrying 20% of the portfolio's variance.

Flags redundant holdings

A correlation matrix across your holdings with redundancy flags, so two names that are one bet stop counting as diversification.

Grades each stock as a fund manager would

Per-holding beta, alpha, the t-statistic on that alpha, R² and volatility — plus whether your stock-picking actually beat that stock's own sector index.

Lets you overrule it

Lock a holding to keep today's weight, exclude one entirely, or state your own view on a stock and let Black-Litterman blend it with the market's.

How Portfolio Optimizer works

Expected returns are priors, not past returns

By default each stock's expected return is a CAPM prior — its beta against the Nifty 50, an equity risk premium of 6%, and a risk-free rate taken from the 91-day Government of India T-Bill — plus an alpha that is shrunk towards zero by its own t-statistic. Raw historical averages are available as an explicit, warned-about choice, because feeding sample means into an optimiser turns it into an error-maximiser: it overweights whatever was luckiest in the window.

Covariance is shrunk, always

The sample covariance matrix of a few hundred trading days across a few dozen stocks is badly conditioned — it reports correlations it does not have the data to support. Alphave shrinks it towards a structured target before any optimisation runs, in every mode, with no option to turn that off.

Weights are long-only and capped

No shorting and no leverage, because neither is available in a normal Indian retail equity account, and a per-name cap you set so the optimiser cannot answer "put 70% in one stock".

A stock and its sector index share one budget

Sector caps are applied to economic exposure, not to tickers. HDFC Bank and Bank Nifty count against the same bucket, so the optimiser can never manufacture fake diversification by holding both sides of the same trade.

Every assumption is on the page and editable

Estimation window (125, 250, 500 or 750 trading days), return engine, risk-free rate, equity risk premium, per-name cap, hold band, forecast horizon, and a volatility multiplier for "the next year will be stormier than the last one". Change any of them and the frontier redraws. The settings persist in your browser.

Locking a name still moves the others

A locked holding keeps today's weight but stays in the covariance matrix, so the optimiser reallocates around it through the full gradient rather than simply dropping it from the problem.

Who Portfolio Optimizer is for

Example

What the output looks like

Say the book is twelve stocks and four of them are private banks. The exposure read will show the bank weight; the risk-share panel will show those four carrying a much larger share of the portfolio's variance than of its money, because they move together; the correlation matrix will flag them as redundant. The frontier then shows how much risk comes off for how much return given up, and the rebalance list puts numbers on it — trim two of the four, and the freed capital can go to an under-represented sector index rather than to a fifth bank. Every figure is an illustration of the maths on your inputs. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

Questions

How can I optimise my stock portfolio?
Optimising a portfolio means choosing weights rather than choosing stocks: for a set of holdings you already own, there is a combination of weights that carries less risk for the same expected return, and Alphave's Portfolio Optimizer computes it from how your specific holdings have moved together. Add or import your holdings, pick an estimation window, and it returns target weights, a rebalance list and the risk that comes off. It is an illustration of the mathematics, not investment advice.
How can I reduce the risk in my portfolio?
Most avoidable portfolio risk in an Indian retail book is concentration that does not look like concentration — several stocks in one sector, or two names that move as one. Alphave surfaces this three ways: a risk-share panel showing percentage of money against percentage of risk per holding, a correlation matrix with redundancy flags, and a minimum-variance target that shows the lowest risk your existing holdings can reach and what it costs in expected return.
How should I rebalance my portfolio?
Pick a target — minimum risk, best risk-adjusted trade-off, risk parity or your own risk level on the frontier — and Alphave prints the illustrative trade list that moves today's weights to it, in rupees. A hold band suppresses trades below a threshold you set, so a position two percentage points from target is left alone rather than churned.
How do I know if my portfolio is too concentrated?
Count of holdings is a poor measure — twenty stocks in three sectors is a concentrated portfolio. Alphave reports effective number of bets (a covariance-weighted count that is lower than your holding count whenever names move together), the Herfindahl index of your weights, sector and market-cap exposure, and the share of total portfolio variance each holding carries.
Does the optimiser just extrapolate past returns?
No, and that is deliberate. The default expected return for each stock is a CAPM prior — its beta against the Nifty 50 and a 6% equity risk premium — plus an alpha shrunk towards zero by its own t-statistic, so a stock needs statistically strong evidence before the optimiser will credit it with skill. Raw historical averages exist as an explicit lab option with a warning attached, because an optimiser fed sample means reliably overweights whatever was luckiest in the estimation window.
Is this investment advice?
No. Alphave is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Adviser and does not give investment advice, stock tips, price targets or buy and sell calls. The optimiser is a calculator: it applies standard portfolio mathematics to inputs you choose and shows its assumptions on the same screen. What you do with the output is your decision.
What does the Portfolio Optimizer cost?
It is included on both paid plans — Alpha Plus at ₹499 a month and Alpha Pro at ₹999 a month, each cheaper annually. The rest of /portfolio, including holdings, exposure, attribution and the capital-gains view, works on the free plan.
Do I have to connect a broker to use it?
No. Holdings can be typed in by hand, imported from a file, or synced from a linked broker account — Alphave reads a linked account, it never places orders. The optimiser works the same way whichever route the holdings arrived by.

What Portfolio Optimizer does not do

Estimates are computed from historical daily closes and are only as good as that history: a stock with a short listing record, a thin float or a recent corporate action will produce unstable estimates, and the optimiser says so rather than hiding it. Long-only and unlevered, which matches a normal Indian retail equity account. No transaction costs, brokerage, STT or tax impact is modelled in the trade list. The cash-versus-equity decision deliberately lives in the Allocation tab, not here — this tool re-weights an equity book, it does not tell you how much of your money should be in equities.

Open Portfolio Optimizer

The Portfolio Intelligence workspace at /portfolio is open to everyone and needs no account to look at. Saving holdings needs a free account. The Optimizer tab is included on both paid plans, Alpha Plus (₹499/month) and Alpha Pro (₹999/month) — it is not on the free plan.

Informational only — not investment advice. Alphave is NISM-certified and is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst. Market data is live during NSE trading hours; company financials are as filed by the company.